Thursday, January 29, 2015

The Winning Super Bowl X-Factors: Patriots vs. Seahawks

Welcome to my annual Super Bowl prediction!  OK, that's not true.  This is the first time.  I've never attempted this (I did do a post Super Bowl analysis once upon a time).  Please be gentle.

Anyway, here goes.  With all unfathomable, unknownable and unpredicable factors being accounted for and controlled, the most important intangibles, or X-Factors, in winning this year's Super Bowl XLIX are:

X-Factor #1:  The New England Patriots have the longevity, stability and culture of a proud and successful franchise with a mindset and expectation of winning.  Similarly to the San Antonio Spurs of the NBA, the Patriots have a strong organization that has installed a unique system of success and excellence that has stood the test of time.  Advantage:  Patriots

X-Factor #2:  The Seattle Seahawks have incorporated a very systematic approach to mental conditioning that is unmatched in professional sports.  Their collective use of sports psychology. positive psychology and mindfulness has provided great value.  They believe in their ability to be resilient and have leveraged that for two years. They could not have comeback against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship without this cultivated and deliberate approach. They have the mental skills to deal with adversity and bounce back from real-time setbacks.  Advantage: Seahawks.

X-Factor #3:  The Seattle Seahawks are defending Super Bowl Champions.  They have the recency effect going for them.  They will have swagger.  Advantage:  Seahawks.

X-Factor #4:  The Patriots have lost the last two Super Bowls in which they have played.  They were favorites in each loss.  They have a Super Bowl albatross around their necks.  They are slight betting favorites again.  The Seahawks are slight underdogs.  Advantage:  Seahawks.

X-Factor #5:  The Patriots have lost the last two Super Bowls in which they have played.  They were favorites in each one.  They have the motivation of having something to prove.  They are not playing the New York Giants.  Advantage: Patriots. 

X-Factor #6:  Deflate-Gate has been a great distraction to the Patriots.  This has to affect their focus and preparation to some degree.   Advantage; Seahawks.

X-Factor #7:  Nevertheless, the absurdity of the media coverage and sensationalism surrounding Deflate-Gate has kept the Patriots loose and relaxed.  Advantage: Patriots.

X-Factor #8:  Marshawn Lynch is in full beast mode.  He has also kept the Seahawks loose and relaxed, by taking the focus and pressure off the rest of the team.  Advantage: Seahawks.    

It is difficult to quantify each of these X-Factors, but if you add them all up, I give a slight edge to the Seattle Seahawks in a surprisingly low scoring game.  Overall Advantage:  Seahawks.  

What's your prediction?  Your comments are welcomed.          


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